Housing Program Delivery Phases: A Decade of Structured Transformation
Saudi Arabia’s Housing Program Delivery Plan operates across three distinct phases, each with defined objectives, institutional structures, and performance metrics. This phased approach reflects the complexity of transforming a housing sector from a 47 percent homeownership baseline to a 70 percent target over 14 years — a timeline that requires not just building homes but reforming mortgage markets, creating institutional capacity, establishing regulatory frameworks, building a culture of homeownership among a population where extended family living was historically predominant, and adapting to evolving demographic dynamics that reshape demand in real time. The delivery plan, published by the Housing Program as part of Vision 2030’s execution framework, provides the strategic roadmap that coordinates these elements across government entities, financial institutions, developers, and regulators.
Phase 1: Foundation (2017-2020)
The first phase focused on establishing the fundamental infrastructure of the housing programme — the institutions, platforms, regulations, and financial instruments that would make large-scale homeownership achievable. Starting from a 47 percent homeownership rate with an undeveloped mortgage market and limited government housing intervention, Phase 1 had to build the system from the ground up.
Institutional establishment: The Sakani platform launched in 2017 as the unified digital gateway for housing support, growing to become the primary channel through which Saudi families access subsidies, browse properties, and coordinate financing. The platform’s design integrated eligibility assessment, property search, financing coordination, and subsidy disbursement into a single system, eliminating the fragmentation that had characterised previous housing efforts. The Dhamanat mortgage guarantee programme was established the same year with what would grow to SR 18 billion in capital, enabling the 5 percent down payment for REDF beneficiaries that removed one of the most significant barriers to first-time homeownership. The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC) was created by PIF in 2017 and licensed by SAMA to develop the secondary mortgage market, laying the groundwork for the bank lending capacity that would be needed as mortgage volumes scaled.
NHC was initially formed as the investment arm of the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing in 2016, during the programme’s design phase. Its ownership was transferred to the state in 2020 near Phase 1’s conclusion, positioning it for the accelerated delivery role it would assume in Phase 2. The foundation phase established NHC’s operational model — master-planned communities with integrated amenities, delivered through partnerships with private developers and supported by the Sakani platform for sales and subsidy integration.
Regulatory reform: SAMA’s regulatory reforms during Phase 1 were critical enablers. The maximum LTV ratio was increased from 85 to 90 percent for first-time buyers, reducing the down payment from 15 to 10 percent. For REDF beneficiaries purchasing properties at SAR 800,000 or less, the effective LTV reached 95 percent with only 5 percent down payment required. These changes directly translated pent-up demand into actual transactions. The REDF subsidy framework was established with monthly profit coverage on up to SAR 500,000 financed, non-refundable grants of SAR 100,000-150,000, and VAT exemption for first-time buyers under a royal order mandating the state bear the VAT cost.
Phase 1 results: The outcomes were transformative: over 834,000 Saudi families were served through the programme, and 310,000 families occupied new homes. The homeownership rate rose from 47 percent to 60 percent — a 13 percentage-point gain in four years, averaging 3.25 points per year. This pace validated the programme’s fundamental design and created momentum for subsequent phases. The mortgage market began its expansion trajectory from approximately SAR 200 billion, with the institutional infrastructure (REDF subsidy disbursement, Dhamanat guarantee processing, SRC secondary market operations) scaling alongside volume.
The rapid Phase 1 acceleration reflected the release of pent-up demand. Families who had desired homeownership but lacked accessible financing, affordable down payment requirements, or sufficient subsidy support could suddenly enter the market. This demand was the most accessible to serve — adequate incomes, some savings accumulation, strong motivation — and the programme’s architecture was precisely calibrated to unlock it.
Phase 2: Scaling Delivery (2021-2025)
Phase 2 shifted focus from programme establishment to operational scaling, with the overarching objective of sustaining the homeownership trajectory toward the 2025 interim target of 65 percent. The phase required accelerating unit delivery, deepening mortgage market penetration, expanding Sakani’s reach to harder-to-serve populations, and building the regulatory framework for a mature housing market.
NHC scaling: NHC’s evolution during Phase 2 was dramatic. The company was rebranded as NHC on November 11, 2024, reflecting its transformation from a ministry subsidiary to a national housing developer of significant scale. Revenue grew exponentially to a record SAR 26 billion in 2024 — higher than its combined 2022 and 2023 revenues — and the company targets doubling this figure for 2025 (approximately SAR 52 billion). NHC launched more than 134,000 new housing units in 2025 with a total value exceeding SAR 100 billion, across 25 urban destinations in 17 cities. Over 134,000 units have been sold to date, and more than 60,000 families have moved into NHC developments. The company manages over 39 major projects, holds 62 percent market share in off-plan projects, and established NHC Innovation in 2025 as its technology arm.
NHC’s international partnerships expanded significantly during Phase 2. New partnerships worth more than SAR 8 billion were signed with entities from South Korea, China, and Egypt, bringing total global partnerships to over SAR 40 billion. At Cityscape Global 2025, NHC signed agreements worth over SAR 5 billion to develop nearly 5,000 new units and announced SAR 60 billion in housing and commercial investment opportunities for 2026. Six agreements were signed to develop housing units and a mall in Riyadh specifically.
ROSHN’s emergence: Phase 2 saw ROSHN mature from concept to active delivery. By the phase’s conclusion, seven communities were launched with approximately 155,880 planned units: SEDRA (30,000+ homes spanning 20 million square metres in north Riyadh with five of eight phases launched), WAREFA (2,380 units in Al Janadriyyah), ALAROUS (18,000 homes in Jeddah with 70 percent-plus Phase 1 infrastructure complete and first deliveries by end 2025), MARAFY (52,000+ units in northern Jeddah featuring the Kingdom’s first canal project at 11 km long and 100 m wide linked to the Red Sea), ALMANAR (33,000 homes at Makkah’s western gate, ground broken December 2024), ALFULWA (10.8 million square metres in the Eastern Province with 18,000 homes), and ALDANAH (2,500 premium units in Dhahran, construction begun May 2025). Major contracts included the SR 7.7 billion China Harbour Engineering Company deal for 6,700 units at SEDRA and WAREFA — the largest commercial contract among all Saudi giga-projects — and SAR 2.14 billion in land sale and development agreements at Restatex Riyadh 2026. ROSHN commits to developing over 1,000 kindergartens and schools and 700+ mosques alongside housing.
Developer ecosystem growth: The Developer Support Program qualified 70 new developers during Phase 2, raising the total to 310 certified developers. The Ministry signed 36 international partnerships across 7 countries. Agreements with Chinese developers for construction of 100,000 homes in 2026 signal substantial capacity expansion. There are 119 projects under construction providing more than 155,000 units. The government launched a USD 43 billion five-year plan for 240,000 housing units, and the SAR 220 billion government allocation primarily for housing supply demonstrates fiscal commitment.
Mortgage market expansion: The mortgage market reached SAR 951.3 billion in outstanding loans by end 2025, a 7.7 percent rise during the year. Real estate lending constituted nearly 30 percent of total bank credit. New mortgage originations in 2024 totalled SAR 91.1 billion — a 17 percent rise with 18.9 percent growth in contract numbers — before moderating to SAR 80.42 billion across 108,795 contracts in 2025. SAMA executed its rate-cutting cycle with six consecutive cuts bringing the repo rate from 5.50 percent to 4.25 percent, the lowest in over three years. SRC completed Saudi Arabia’s first RMBS transaction in August 2025, exceeded SAR 12 billion in refinancing deals, completed its SAR 20 billion local sukuk programme, and launched a USD 5 billion international sukuk programme with the first USD 2 billion issuance oversubscribed 6 times.
Sakani programme performance: Annual beneficiary counts grew from 101,230 in 2023 to 117,000 in 2024, with H1 2025 serving 54,000 families and over 48,000 moving into homes. Over 106,000 housing contracts were signed through Sakani in H1 2025. The platform reached over 4.6 million registered users. Dhamanat helped over 116,000 beneficiaries with SAR 77 billion in guaranteed loans since 2018. The Sakan Foundation developmental housing programme served over 21,000 families in 2024 and approximately 3,800 in H1 2025, supported by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s SR 1 billion personal donation.
Regulatory evolution: Phase 2’s regulatory environment evolved substantially. The White Land Tax reform (Royal Decree No. M/244, April 2025) replaced the flat 2.5 percent rate with progressive rates up to 10 percent, extending to vacant buildings and targeting 5,500+ plots covering 411 million square metres. The Riyadh rent freeze (September 2025) locked rents for five years. The foreign ownership law (Royal Decree M/14, effective January 2026) introduced zone-based purchasing rights for non-Saudis. The Ejar platform was established for mandatory rental contract registration. FAL brokerage licensing through REGA professionalised the real estate services sector. The Wafi programme matured with 434 active licensed projects, enhanced escrow protections, 68 percent reduction in fraud and non-delivery, and 1,130 field inspections. The Council of Ministers approved five regulatory amendments to Housing Support Regulations, lowering Sakani eligibility age to 20, expanding the beneficiary pool, and increasing product flexibility.
Phase 2 homeownership results: The homeownership rate reached 63.74 percent by end 2023 (surpassing the 63 percent target) and 65.4 percent by end 2024 (surpassing the 2025 target of 65 percent a year early). This ahead-of-schedule achievement validated Phase 2’s scaling strategy and created a strong platform for Phase 3, but the moderation in annual gains (from 3.25 points per year in Phase 1 to approximately 1.25-1.66 points in Phase 2) confirmed that progressively harder-to-serve cohorts require more intensive programme effort.
Phase 3: Maturity and New Initiatives (2026-2030)
Phase 3, covering 2026 to 2030, targets the achievement of 70 percent homeownership and the establishment of a mature, self-sustaining housing market. The remaining 4.6 percentage-point gap requires approximately 0.77 points per year — mathematically achievable given historical performance, but operationally challenging given the composition of remaining unserved demand.
The harder-to-serve population: The families remaining outside homeownership represent the programme’s most challenging cohort. These are families with lower incomes (below the levels where the current subsidy architecture provides comfortable affordability), younger ages (newly forming households with minimal savings), geographic positions in high-cost markets (particularly Riyadh, where prices have risen 82 percent since 2019), or combinations of these constraints. The affordability gap analysis details how fixed subsidy parameters (SAR 800,000 down payment cap, SAR 500,000 REDF coverage ceiling) have been eroded by price appreciation, creating structural barriers for middle-income families.
Expected Phase 3 initiatives: Key Phase 3 initiatives are expected to include:
Diversified housing models — Rental stock development, shared ownership concepts, community land trusts, and affordable rental with eventual purchase options (rent-to-own) that provide stable housing without immediate homeownership financial commitments. These models serve families who cannot yet access homeownership under current parameters but should not remain in market-rate rental indefinitely.
Enhanced mid-market financing instruments — Products designed for the SAR 14,000-25,000 income band where the current subsidy rate (35-50 percent) leaves families with substantial residual financing burdens. This could include extended profit coverage periods, higher coverage ceilings, or blended products that combine REDF support with SRC secondary market instruments.
Expanded developmental housing — Scaling the Sakan Foundation pathway for families on social security who cannot access commercial financing. The Crown Prince’s SR 1 billion donation and the 21,000 families served in 2024 establish the operational base; Phase 3 may require significant expansion of this channel.
Continued regulatory evolution — The foreign ownership framework requires operationalisation and monitoring. The zone-based system with REGA-published Geographic Scope Documents needs refinement based on market response. REGA’s designation of digital fractional ownership as an official investment category signals openness to innovative ownership models. Transaction fee structures (up to 5 percent on non-Saudi transfers) and violation penalties (up to SAR 10 million) need calibration based on market activity.
Supply-side acceleration — NHC’s 600,000-unit target by 2030, ROSHN’s 400,000-unit mandate, Chinese developer agreements for 100,000 homes, and the 310 certified developers represent the production base. Phase 3 must ensure that the price distribution of delivered supply aligns with the affordability constraints of remaining demand. The residential construction market’s projected growth from USD 19.59 billion to USD 25.21 billion by 2030 at 5.17 percent CAGR, and construction industry growth of 5.2 percent annually, provide the macro conditions for sustained delivery.
Mortgage market deepening — The SAR 1.3 trillion mortgage market target by 2030 requires approximately SAR 350 billion in additional lending capacity. SRC’s SAR 75 billion refinancing target within five years, the maturing RMBS market identified by S&P as anchored by USD 180 billion in home loans, and sustained rate stability at 4.25 percent provide the financing infrastructure. Jadwa Investment expects mortgage demand to gradually improve during 2026.
Phase 3 preparation measures: Several Phase 2 actions were explicitly designed as Phase 3 preparation. The lowering of Sakani eligibility age to 20 expands the beneficiary pool for Phase 3. The five regulatory amendments approved in 2025 enhance eligibility criteria and product distribution flexibility. The Riyadh rent freeze creates a stable five-year rental environment spanning the entire Phase 3 period. The White Land Tax reform’s progressive rates create long-term pressure for land development that aligns with Phase 3’s supply needs.
The self-sustaining market goal: Beyond the 70 percent numerical target, Phase 3 aims to establish conditions where the housing market can function sustainably without extraordinary government intervention. This means a mature mortgage market with secondary market liquidity (SRC and RMBS), a competitive developer ecosystem (310+ certified developers with international partnerships), transparent regulation (REGA oversight, Wafi protections, FAL licensing, Ejar rental registration), and sufficient housing supply to meet ongoing demand from household formation. The real estate market’s forecasted growth from USD 75 billion in 2025 to USD 110 billion by 2030 reflects the scale of the institutional market being constructed.
Whether Phase 3 achieves all of these objectives depends on the programme’s capacity for continued adaptation — adjusting subsidy parameters to match market realities, scaling supply at affordable price points, and developing new housing models for families that the current purchase-focused architecture does not fully serve.
For ongoing phase tracking, see our Homeownership Tracker Dashboard, Homeownership Trajectory Analysis, Affordability Gap Analysis, and Demographic Drivers. For supply-side data, see NHC, Housing Supply Dashboard, and the Affordable Housing Guide.