Homeownership Rate Trajectory: Tracking Saudi Arabia’s Defining Housing Metric
The homeownership rate among Saudi families is the single most important performance indicator of the Vision 2030 housing programme. Its trajectory from the 47 percent baseline when the initiative launched in 2016 to the 65.4 percent level achieved by the end of 2024 represents an 18.4 percentage-point increase in eight years — an average annual gain of approximately 2.3 percentage points. This pace of improvement is exceptional by any international standard and reflects the coordinated impact of Sakani subsidies, NHC supply delivery, mortgage market expansion, and regulatory reform. The Vision 2030 Annual Report 2024 confirmed this figure as an official progress metric, marking the achievement of 102 percent of the 2025 target a full year ahead of schedule. Understanding the trajectory’s drivers, phases, and constraints is essential for assessing whether the 70 percent 2030 target remains achievable.
Annual Milestones and Acceleration Dynamics
The homeownership rate’s progression has not been linear. The data shows clear phases of acceleration and stabilisation, each reflecting different programme dynamics and market conditions:
2016: 47 percent — The Vision 2030 baseline, reflecting decades of limited government intervention in housing, an undeveloped mortgage market (total outstanding real estate loans well below SAR 200 billion), and a cultural preference for family compound living that gradually gave way to nuclear family formation. The housing programme delivery plan was launched to address this starting point through coordinated institutional action.
2017-2020 (Phase 1): Rapid acceleration to 60 percent — The first four years saw the most dramatic gains, with the rate rising 13 percentage points at an average of 3.25 points per year. This phase coincided with the launch of Sakani in 2017 and the Dhamanat guarantee programme, SAMA’s LTV relaxation from 85 to 90 percent (and 95 percent for REDF beneficiaries), and the initial wave of NHC community deliveries. During this period, over 834,000 Saudi families were served and 310,000 occupied new homes. The rapid acceleration reflected pent-up demand release: families who had desired homeownership but lacked the institutional support (subsidies, guarantees, accessible financing) to achieve it could now access the market. This cohort was the easiest to serve — they had adequate incomes, some savings, and strong motivation, needing only the removal of structural barriers.
2021-2023 (Phase 2 early): Consolidation at 63.74 percent — Growth moderated to approximately 1.25 points per year as the programme shifted from capturing easily reachable demand to serving progressively harder-to-reach cohorts. In 2023, 101,230 families benefited from Sakani and 98,475 occupied their first homes. The 2023 result of 63.74 percent surpassed the 63 percent target, demonstrating continued positive momentum despite the deceleration. This moderation was expected — the low-hanging fruit of pent-up demand had been largely harvested, and each subsequent percentage point required more intensive support for families with lower incomes, less savings, or less favourable geographic positions.
2024: Acceleration to 65.4 percent — A 1.66 percentage-point gain in a single year, surpassing the 2025 interim target of 65 percent a full year ahead of schedule. This acceleration was driven by exceptional programme performance: 122,000 families benefiting from housing support, 117,000 families using Sakani solutions, 107,000 housing finance contracts signed, more than 21,000 eligible families achieving homeownership through developmental housing pathways, and over 93,000 families occupying new homes — a nine percent increase over 2023. Over 27,000 subsidised loans were signed for low-income beneficiaries, demonstrating deepening reach into harder-to-serve populations.
H1 2025: Sustained momentum — Over 54,000 families benefited from housing support, more than 48,000 moved into homes, over 106,000 housing contracts were signed through Sakani, and 27,000 subsidised loans for low-income beneficiaries exceeded the mid-year target by 63 percent. These figures suggest sustained delivery capacity, though the full-year 2025 homeownership rate will determine whether acceleration continues.
Supply-Side Drivers of the Trajectory
The homeownership rate increase requires physical housing units — subsidies and financing alone cannot create ownership without properties to purchase. The supply side of the trajectory has scaled dramatically through two primary channels.
NHC has evolved from a startup entity in 2016 to a dominant market force. Ownership was transferred to the state in 2020 and the company rebranded as NHC in November 2024. Its 2024 revenue reached a record SAR 26 billion — higher than its combined 2022 and 2023 revenues — and it targets doubling that figure for 2025. NHC launched more than 134,000 new housing units in 2025 with a total value exceeding SAR 100 billion across 25 urban destinations in 17 cities, with over 134,000 units sold to date and more than 60,000 families already moved in. The company holds 62 percent market share in off-plan projects and manages over 39 major projects. Its NHC Innovation arm, established in 2025, focuses on sustainable digital solutions. International partnerships worth over SAR 40 billion globally, including SAR 8 billion in new partnerships with entities from South Korea, China, and Egypt, and SAR 60 billion in investment opportunities announced for 2026, demonstrate scaling capacity.
ROSHN adds PIF-backed delivery capacity targeting 400,000 units by 2030. Its seven communities — SEDRA (30,000+ homes in Riyadh), WAREFA (2,380 in eastern Riyadh), ALAROUS (18,000 in Jeddah with 70 percent-plus of Phase 1 infrastructure complete and first deliveries by end 2025), MARAFY (52,000+ in Jeddah), ALMANAR (33,000 in Makkah, ground broken December 2024), ALFULWA (18,000 in the Eastern Province), and ALDANAH (2,500 in Dhahran, construction begun May 2025) — total approximately 155,880 planned units. ROSHN’s SEDRA Phase 5 launched over 2,000 homes in September 2025, and its SR 7.7 billion contract with China Harbour Engineering Company for 6,700 residential units at SEDRA and WAREFA represents the largest commercial contract among all Saudi giga-projects. ROSHN also commits to over 1,000 kindergartens, schools, and 700+ mosques alongside its housing, creating complete communities.
The broader development ecosystem includes 310 certified private developers (up from 240 after 70 new qualifications), 36 international developer partnerships across 7 countries, and agreements with Chinese developers for 100,000 homes in 2026. There are 119 projects under construction providing more than 155,000 units, and the government’s five-year plan allocates USD 43 billion for 240,000 housing units. New Murabba’s 104,000-unit residential component adds further future pipeline. The residential construction market is valued at USD 19.59 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 25.21 billion by 2030 at a 5.17 percent CAGR, with overall construction industry growth of 5.2 percent annually from 2025 to 2028.
Financing Drivers of the Trajectory
The mortgage market’s transformation has been equally critical. Total outstanding real estate loans grew from approximately SAR 200 billion in 2018 to SAR 800 billion in 2024 to SAR 951.3 billion by end 2025 — progressing through SAR 922.2 billion in Q1, SAR 932.8 billion in Q2, and reaching the year-end figure that represents nearly 30 percent of total bank credit. The market targets SAR 1.3 trillion by 2030.
SAMA’s progressive rate cuts to 4.25 percent by December 2025 — a cumulative 100 basis points since August 2024 mirroring the US Federal Reserve through the SAR-USD peg — have reduced financing costs. The rate was cut from 5.50 percent (September 2024), through 4.75 percent and 4.50 percent (September and October 2025), to 4.25 percent (December 2025), where it has remained unchanged through March 2026.
SRC’s refinancing capacity has maintained bank liquidity for continued mortgage origination. SRC’s refinancing deals exceeded SAR 12 billion with 85 percent growth, agreements with Al Rajhi Bank total SAR 10.8 billion, and a SAR 10 billion REDF refinancing partnership ensures programme-linked capacity. SRC completed its SAR 20 billion local sukuk programme, launched a USD 5 billion international sukuk programme (first USD 2 billion issuance oversubscribed 6 times), and targets SAR 75 billion in refinancing within five years. Saudi Arabia’s first RMBS transaction in August 2025, with S&P identifying a large opportunity anchored by USD 180 billion in home loans, marks the maturation of the secondary mortgage market.
Dhamanat’s SR 18 billion capital base has supported over 116,000 beneficiaries and SAR 77 billion in guaranteed real estate loans since 2018, directly enabling the 5 percent down payment pathway that is critical for first-time buyers.
Remaining Gap: 4.6 Percentage Points to 70 Percent
The 4.6 percentage-point gap between the 65.4 percent 2024 level and the 70 percent 2030 target appears achievable on current trends, requiring approximately 0.77 points per year over the remaining six years — well below the historical average of 2.3 points per year and significantly below even the 2021-2023 moderated pace of 1.25 points per year. However, several factors complicate simple linear extrapolation.
Diminishing returns: The families remaining outside homeownership represent progressively harder-to-serve cohorts — lower incomes, more constrained financing capacity, less alignment with available supply at current price points. Each additional percentage point requires more intensive subsidy support and potentially more creative housing solutions. The programme has already served the most accessible demand; the remaining demand is structurally more difficult.
Affordability headwinds: Housing rent inflation of 7.6 percent, villa price increases of 7.1 percent, and Riyadh apartment prices up 82 percent since 2019 create affordability challenges that can offset subsidy benefits. The residential sector price index fell 2.24 percent during the year to Q4 2025, suggesting moderation is beginning, but the Riyadh rent freeze addresses rental inflation without directly reducing purchase prices.
Delivery risks: The 600,000-unit NHC target and ROSHN’s 400,000-unit mandate face construction capacity constraints. ROSHN’s current 85,000-unit pipeline would need approximately 115,000 units per year to reach target. Any material delays in the 119 projects under construction or the Chinese developer agreements would reduce available supply.
Demographic dynamics: Saudi Arabia’s young population creates ongoing household formation demand — the demographic drivers analysis details how the homeownership rate must contend with a growing denominator (total families) even as the numerator (homeowning families) increases. The lowering of Sakani eligibility to age 20 explicitly expands the denominator of eligible families.
Market softness signals: New residential mortgage originations fell 11 percent in 2025 to 108,795 contracts worth SAR 80.42 billion. December 2025 originations of SAR 5.55 billion declined 53.5 percent from December 2024. November 2025 recorded the lowest monthly origination value. These signals suggest affordability constraints are binding in the near term, even as long-term structural demand remains robust.
Phase 3 Outlook (2026-2030)
The Housing Program Delivery Plan’s Phase 3, covering 2026 to 2030, targets maturity and the launch of new initiatives to reach the 70 percent objective. This phase is expected to introduce diversified housing models including expanded rental stock, shared ownership concepts, and mid-market financing instruments that address the cohorts not well served by the current subsidy-to-purchase model.
The Council of Ministers’ approval of five regulatory amendments to Housing Support Regulations in 2025, combined with the lowering of Sakani eligibility age to 20, the expansion of the beneficiary pool, and increased product distribution flexibility, signal proactive preparation for Phase 3’s more challenging demand landscape. The developmental housing programme — supported by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s SR 1 billion personal donation — provides a below-market pathway for the most vulnerable families.
The White Land Tax reform (progressive rates up to 10 percent on 5,500+ vacant plots covering 411 million square metres), the foreign ownership framework (zone-based model with REGA oversight and digital fractional ownership designation), and continued SAMA rate stability at 4.25 percent create the regulatory environment for Phase 3. Jadwa Investment expects mortgage demand to gradually improve during 2026, supported by declining interest rates and greater housing availability.
The trajectory’s mathematical feasibility is clear: 0.77 percentage points per year is well within demonstrated capability. The operational challenge lies in the composition of remaining demand and the adaptability of programme parameters to serve it. The system’s track record — surpassing interim targets, delivering at scale, and adapting through regulatory reform — provides a strong foundation, but the final 4.6 points will test whether that adaptability extends to the Kingdom’s most underserved housing cohorts.
For real-time tracking, visit our Homeownership Tracker Dashboard. For related analysis, see Affordability Gap Analysis, Housing Program Delivery Phases, Demographic Drivers, and our Guides section including the Affordable Housing Guide and Mortgage Guide.