Housing Supply Dashboard

The supply side of Saudi Arabia’s housing programme involves three institutional pillars: the National Housing Company (NHC), ROSHN (PIF), and 310 certified private developers. This dashboard tracks delivery volumes, pipeline status, and construction activity across the Kingdom’s residential sector — the physical infrastructure that translates Sakani subsidy demand into actual homes occupied by Saudi families. Supply adequacy determines whether the 65.4 percent homeownership rate can advance to the 70 percent 2030 target without triggering price inflation that erodes subsidy effectiveness.

NHC Delivery Metrics

NHC’s evolution from a Ministry of Housing subsidiary to the Kingdom’s dominant residential developer has been rapid. Established in 2016 and rebranded as NHC on November 11, 2024, the company achieved SAR 26 billion in revenue in 2024 — higher than its combined revenues from 2022 and 2023 — and targets approximately SAR 52 billion in 2025, effectively doubling year-on-year. This revenue trajectory reflects both volume growth and the company’s expanding role as master developer, land provider, and infrastructure builder across 25 urban destinations in 17 cities.

The 62 percent off-plan market share positions NHC as the single largest force in Saudi Arabia’s residential supply pipeline. This dominance has strategic significance for the housing programme: NHC’s pricing, product design, and delivery timelines directly determine whether Sakani beneficiaries can find suitable properties within the SAR 800,000 Dhamanat threshold and the SAR 500,000 REDF profit coverage cap. NHC’s ability to deliver product at subsidy-compatible price points is as critical to the homeownership trajectory as the subsidy programmes themselves.

The 134,000 units launched in 2025, with total value exceeding SAR 100 billion, represent the most aggressive launch programme in NHC’s history. The 60,000 families who have already moved into NHC developments confirm that the company can execute delivery at scale, though the gap between launched (134,000) and moved-in (60,000) units reflects the natural lag between project launch, construction, and occupancy.

NHC Community Profiles

NHC operates across diverse geographic and market segments. Key community developments include:

Khuzam (Riyadh): Suburb projects offering integrated communities with sustainability standards, services, and facilities. Located within the capital’s expanding urban boundary, these projects serve the highest-demand market in the Kingdom, where residential prices rose 10.6 percent year-on-year in Q2 2025.

Al Nada (Makkah Gateway): A premium residential project close to the Holy Mosque, featuring modern designs and comprehensive amenities. This project serves both the domestic market and positions NHC in the religious tourism-adjacent residential segment.

Sadal and Morjanah (Jeddah): Part of Jeddah’s residential expansion, with Sadal offering contemporary Hejazi designs in the Al Wareef Destination and Morjanah in East Jeddah combining luxury touches with green and recreational spaces.

Obayya Quarters (Al Fursan): Situated in the Al Fursan development area, this project offers contemporary designs targeting families — a core demographic for the Sakani programme.

Tabuk Destination: An integrated residential community in Tabuk, demonstrating NHC’s geographic reach beyond the major metropolitan centres into secondary cities where land costs are lower and where significant Saudi populations lack adequate housing.

NHC International Partnerships

NHC’s international partnership strategy has expanded significantly. New partnerships worth more than SAR 8 billion were signed with entities from South Korea, China, and Egypt, bringing total global partnerships to over SAR 40 billion. The most significant near-term commitment involves agreements with Chinese developers for construction of 100,000 homes in 2026 — a volume that would represent a substantial acceleration if fully executed.

At Cityscape Global 2025, NHC signed agreements worth over SAR 5 billion (USD 1.3 billion) to develop nearly 5,000 new housing units, including six agreements to develop housing units and a mall in Riyadh. These partnerships bring international construction expertise, potentially lower costs through imported construction technologies, and additional delivery capacity to supplement the domestic developer base.

ROSHN Community Pipeline

ROSHN, wholly owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), carries a mandate to deliver 400,000 housing units with neighbouring mixed-use projects across Saudi Arabia’s main urban centres by 2030. The current pipeline of approximately 155,880 planned units represents 39 percent of this target, with Knight Frank analysis indicating ROSHN would need approximately 115,000 additional units per year over the remaining years to close the gap — a pace that significantly exceeds current launch rates.

SEDRA remains the flagship, spanning 20 million sqm in north Riyadh with eight phases (five launched), delivering 30,000+ homes and 400 amenity assets to house 130,000+ people. Phase 5, launched in September 2025, includes over 2,000 new homes with the first batch featuring 700+ homes in 10 designs. SEDRA has attracted significant investment: SAR 1.5 billion in agreements in February 2025 (SAR 650 million for 900+ residential units and SAR 720 million for 300+ premium units), and SAR 2.14 billion in land sale and development agreements at Restatex Riyadh 2026. The SR 7.7 billion China Harbour Engineering Company contract for 6,700 residential units at SEDRA and WAREFA represents the largest commercial contract among all Saudi giga-projects.

MARAFY in northern Jeddah is the largest single community at 52,000+ residential units with capacity for 130,000+ residents. The project features the Kingdom’s first canal project — 11 km long and 100 metres wide, linked to the Red Sea — positioning it as both a housing development and an urban landmark.

ALMANAR in Makkah, with 33,000 homes at the city’s western gate and a 20-minute drive from the Holy Mosque, broke ground in December 2024. The proximity to Islam’s holiest site gives this project both religious significance and strong long-term demand fundamentals.

ROSHN’s ancillary infrastructure mandate extends beyond housing to over 1,000 kindergartens and schools, and over 700 mosques across all communities — creating integrated social infrastructure that supports the community development model rather than delivering housing in isolation.

Construction Industry Metrics

The residential construction industry operates as the execution layer that converts developer plans into physical housing stock. The 119 projects currently under construction, providing more than 155,000 units, represent the active pipeline that will deliver homes over the coming 18 to 36 months. The 310 certified developers — expanded by 70 new developers qualified under the Developer Support Program — provide the private sector capacity that supplements NHC’s and ROSHN’s institutional delivery.

The USD 43 billion five-year housing construction plan launched by the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs targets 240,000 housing units, adding another institutional delivery channel to the supply pipeline. This plan operates alongside NHC’s 600,000-unit programme and ROSHN’s 400,000-unit mandate, though overlap in unit counting across these programmes makes precise aggregate pipeline calculation complex.

Construction industry capacity is a potential constraint. The 5.2 percent average annual growth forecast for 2025-2028 may be insufficient to support the combined delivery ambitions of NHC, ROSHN, the five-year plan, and private developers without significant additional investment in construction workforce, equipment, and materials supply chains. The international developer partnerships — 36 across 7 countries — partly address this by importing construction capacity and expertise.

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis

The supply dashboard must be read alongside the Homeownership Tracker and Mortgage Market Dashboard to assess supply-demand balance. Several metrics indicate imbalance:

Riyadh apartment prices have increased 82 percent since 2019, driven by population growth, economic activity concentration, and housing supply that has not kept pace with demand. The 10.6 percent year-on-year price increase in Q2 2025 and housing rent inflation of 7.6 percent in June 2025 confirm continued pressure. Transaction volumes in Riyadh fell 31 percent year-on-year in H1 2025 as the market recalibrated — a pattern that may reflect price-driven demand destruction rather than reduced underlying need.

The Riyadh rent freeze and White Land Tax reform represent regulatory interventions targeting the supply-demand imbalance. The White Land Tax, with progressive rates up to 10 percent on over 5,500 vacant plots covering approximately 411 million sqm, aims to incentivise development of idle urban land. If even a fraction of this land enters the development pipeline, the supply impact would be significant.

The Wafi programme provides the regulatory framework for off-plan sales, with 434 approved projects and 350 qualified developers. Enhanced enforcement since 2022 has decreased fraud and non-delivery rates by 68 percent, and escrow account requirements protect buyer deposits against developer default. These protections support buyer confidence in off-plan purchases, which constitute the majority of NHC’s and the programme’s delivery pipeline.

Additional Supply Indicators

The New Murabba project’s 104,000-unit residential component within the 19 km-sq mixed-use mega-project in Riyadh represents a major future supply source, though its delivery timeline extends well beyond the 2030 target date for the 70 percent homeownership goal. This project reflects the longer-term vision for Riyadh’s residential capacity and will contribute to housing supply in the 2030s.

Price Dynamics and Affordability Implications

Property price trends directly affect the supply dashboard’s relevance to the housing programme. The residential sector index fell 2.24 percent during the year to Q4 2025, contrasting with the 5.12 percent year-on-year increase seen in Q1 2025 — suggesting a moderation that, if sustained, could improve the alignment between new supply pricing and Sakani subsidy parameters. The SAR 800,000 Dhamanat threshold and SAR 500,000 REDF cap are fixed nominal figures; price moderation effectively expands the share of new supply that falls within these parameters.

Riyadh’s price dynamics require particular attention. Apartment prices in the capital have risen 82 percent since 2019, driven by population growth and economic activity concentration. Residential prices climbed 10.6 percent year-on-year in Q2 2025, though total transaction values dipped 20 percent to SAR 29 billion and volumes fell 31 percent year-on-year in H1 2025 — suggesting a market recalibration where price levels are testing the limits of buyer capacity. If the price moderation observed in Q4 2025 continues through 2026, a larger share of Riyadh’s new supply would fall within the subsidy-compatible price range.

The interaction between supply growth and price dynamics will determine whether the remaining 4.6 percentage points to the 70 percent homeownership target are achievable by 2030. Adequate supply at subsidy-compatible prices would enable continued conversion of qualifying families from renting to owning. Insufficient supply or price escalation would create a bottleneck where subsidised demand exceeds available product, potentially stalling the homeownership trajectory despite strong fiscal support.

Regulatory Framework Supporting Supply

The supply pipeline operates within a regulatory framework designed to support both delivery volume and buyer protection. The Wafi programme regulates off-plan sales through 434 approved projects with 350 qualified developers. Escrow account requirements mandate that all buyer payments are deposited into dedicated accounts managed according to completion milestones — developers are prohibited from receiving amounts directly from buyers, and a maximum 5 percent reservation deposit applies. Late delivery triggers 7 percent annual compensation in favour of the buyer, and developers must provide structural warranties lasting up to 10 years.

The Developer Support Program has qualified 70 new developers, bringing total certified developers to 310. Combined with 36 international partnerships across 7 countries, the developer base has sufficient breadth to support the supply targets — though execution capacity, rather than developer count, remains the binding constraint.

The White Land Tax reform, with progressive rates up to 10 percent targeting over 5,500 vacant plots covering approximately 411 million sqm of undeveloped urban land, represents the most significant supply-side intervention. If this tax incentivises landowners to develop or sell their plots, the resulting land supply could reduce input costs for developers and expand the pipeline of subsidy-compatible housing.

Data sources: NHC, ROSHN, Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs, Vision 2030, REGA.

For analysis, see NHC Delivery Targets, ROSHN Profile, NHC Corporate Strategy, Homeownership Tracker, and Mortgage Market Dashboard.